Guest Roast: “Fear of a Return to Armed Conflict in Burundi”

James Belgrave reports on the increase in violence experienced over the last six months and its implications for long term stability of Burundi. Photo Credits: Teddy Mazina.

Since the peace agreements of 2005 and since the former rebel FNL (Forces Nationales de Libération) forces laid down their weapons and joined the political process in 2009, relative peace has reigned over Burundi.

However, since the 2010 elections, which were characterized by sporadic political violence, the security situation has steadily deteriorated. Several recent armed attacks stand out amongst a list of worryingly violent incidents. The government has so far blamed ‘armed bandits’, but some point to the violence as bearing the marks of a potential conflict with the potential to destabilize a country which is already recovering from a civil war which left around 300,000 people dead and more than 500,000 displaced.

On the evening of Sunday the 18^th of September, heavily armed gunmen entered a bar 16 km outside the capital city, Bujumbura,
and opened fire on the crowd inside, using grenades and machine guns. In total 41 people were killed and many others injured. This is the most extreme case of peace time violence the country has witnessed since the 2005 agreements. So far no one has acknowledged responsibility, and an official FNL party spokesman denied all involvement. Some sources suspect the gunmen may have come from nearby Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

On the 23^rd of June, near Rumonge in the southern province of Bururi, a bus was fired upon by armed men at around 4 am. Repeated rounds were fired at the vehicle, and according to one source, the passengers were then stripped naked and had their belongings taken from them. They were told to lie face down and were doused in petrol. The victims begged for their lives, and after some time the bus driver was put inside the bus, which was then set alight. At least eight people carried out the attack, which left two injured and one dead.

In early September, the Burundian Human rights watchdog APRODH stated publicly that it had documented at least 125 extra-judicial killings between May and August of 2011 throughout the country. Many of the victims are alleged to have been targeted due to their affiliation with the FNL opposition party.

A 2010 United Nations report said the former FNL leader, Agathon Rwasa and a number of allies had fled into neighboring DRC following their boycott of the elections, which they claimed were rigged. Rwasa recently released a statement that pointed to the government carrying out a violent strategy targeting his supporters.

Several newspapers have stated that families of the victims these attacks are blaming the state intelligence services, the SNR (Service National de Renseignement), whist others claim that the ruling party (CNDD-FDD) youth wing, the “Imbonerakure”, are carrying out what has been called “Opération Safisha” or “Cleansing Operation”, targeting FNL and Rwasa loyalists.

An International Crisis Group (ICG) report published in February 2011 stated that “Burundi is not on the verge of returning to a civil war, but by focusing on the marginalization and repression of the opposition, the government is reinforcing a nascent rebellion”. Since then, a breakdown of official communication between the opposition and the government has been followed by a significant increase in targeted violence and killings.

More than ten years since the Burundian peace accords, a deterioration of the security situation is raising fears of a new insurrection. Some analysts are debating whether the country is on the verge of falling back into a state of conflict, or if these incidents are minor setbacks in what had been acknowledged as a steady path to long-term peace.

The view from the ground is that the increase in regularity and brutality of these killings, combined with recent fuel shortages and staggering price increases over the last year are factors which may lead to the worst. The situation seems to hinge on the government’s ability to open a space for dialogue with opposition parties.

What do you think about the ongoing situation in Burundi? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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James Belgrave is a special correspondent for Burundi for Global South Development Magazine and this article featured in the October 2011 issue.