Development Roast Giving international development a proper roasting
Bolivia is one of the poorest countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) with average per capita incomes that do not even reach half the regional average ($4140 for Bolivia compared to $9321 for LAC) (1). Average productivity per person of working age is now exactly the same as it was in 1967 (2), despite the substantial advances in education, health, basic services and available technology over the last four decades.
Climate Feedbacks: Positive or Negative
“Lisa, in this house we obey the laws of thermodynamics”
Homer Simpson
By itself, a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere has only a modest effect on global temperatures – an increase of around 1ºC. Even a quadrupling of CO2 in the atmosphere would only cause a direct temperature increase of about 2ºC (1). However, this modest increase can be either amplified or reduced depending on the feedback effects.
How We Know What Isn’t So
“I will see it when I believe it”
Slip of tongue by Thane Pittman
Almost 20 years ago Thomas Gilovich wrote a very interesting book about the “Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life” explaining some of the mechanisms through which we tend to deceive ourselves and each other.
In this article, I will use some of his insights to analyze the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory. Our collective beliefs on this topic have so important consequences that we cannot allow ourselves to be deceived. If human carbon emissions are really overheating the globe, the costs of not believing this and not acting accordingly, could be catastrophic.
Does the World Benefit from Being Deceived?
“A good lie will have travelled half way around the world
while the truth is putting on her boots”
Mark Twain
As regular readers of this newsletter will have discovered, I believe the threat of Climate Change is being vastly exaggerated not only by the media and certain individuals, but also by big international institutions, such as the United Nations and WWF.
The World is Cooling so the WWF is Turning the Heat On
Last week, WWF came out with an alarming report “Climate Change: Faster, Stronger, Sooner: An overview of the climate science published since the UN IPCC Fourth Assessment Report” suggesting that Global warming is accelerating beyond IPCC’s forecasts.
That is a really impressive accomplishment at a time where everything points to the Earth being several years into a cooling cycle (1), probably related to the Sun having suddenly changed from unusually active to unusually quiet (2) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation having turned into its negative mode (3).
Tipping Points
A Tipping Point is the moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire, the point where something previously rare suddenly becomes common (1). Fashion is an obvious example, where certain styles and patterns are virtually unseen for decades, and then suddenly booms for a couple of years, after which they fade back into negligence. In many ways, the rise and fall of ideas resembles the rise and fall of epidemics.
This article will focus on the rise and fall (and rise and fall) of climate change concerns.
NASA still reluctant to admit that the Sun might affect Earth’s climate
Last week, NASA held a conference on solar activity, showing the results of Ulysses’ third and last orbit around the sun (1). “The sun cycles between periods of great activity and lesser activity. Right now, we are in a period of minimal activity that has stretched on longer than anyone anticipated,” explained Ed Smith, NASA’s Ulysses project scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “When the results of the third scan were compared with observations from the previous solar cycle, the strength of the solar wind pressure and the magnetic field embedded in the solar wind were found to have decreased by 20 percent. The field strength near the spacecraft has decreased by 36 percent.”
Climate Alarmists versus Science
It is not easy to be worried about average temperature increases of a few degrees over the rest of your life if the temperatures you experience change ten times as much every single day.
Consequently, much of the concern around global warming is focused on associated effects, such as the melting of glaciers, sea-level rise, floods, droughts, hurricanes, an increase in the frequency and severity of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and possible abrupt climate changes, such as the shut-down of the thermohaline circulation (MOC) which brings warm waters and mild climates to northern Europe.
Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change: Mitigation, Development or Migration
Most humans have a preference for temperatures around 20°C. If the climate is hotter, they use air-conditioners to bring down the temperature, and if it is colder, they use heating systems to increase the temperature.
Except the poor, who cannot afford air-conditioners and heating systems. They just have to accept the climate as it is, and accept the resulting inconveniences in terms of increased mortality and decreased productivity. Especially if they are too poor to move to a place with a better climate.
Climate Variability versus Climate Change
“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”
Robert A. Heinlein
Between 1905 and 2005, the average global air temperature near the Earth’s surface increased by somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0 degrees Celsius. Climate model projections summarized by the IPCC indicate that average global surface temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C during this century (1).